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Sunday, November 29, 2020

Why I care about replication studies

In 2009 I attended a European Social Cognition Network meeting in Poland. I only remember one talk from that meeting: A short presentation in a nearly empty room. The presenter was a young PhD student - Stephane Doyen. He discussed two studies where he tried to replicate a well-known finding in social cognition research related to elderly priming, which had shown that people walked more slowly after being subliminally primed with elderly related words, compared to a control condition.

His presentation blew my mind. But it wasn’t because the studies failed to replicate – it was widely known in 2009 that these studies couldn’t be replicated. Indeed, around 2007, I had overheard two professors in a corridor discussing the problem that there were studies in the literature everyone knew would not replicate. And they used this exact study on elderly priming as one example. The best solution the two professors came up with to correct the scientific record was to establish an independent committee of experts that would have the explicit task of replicating studies and sharing their conclusions with the rest of the world. To me, this sounded like a great idea.

And yet, in this small conference room in Poland, there was this young PhD student, acting as if we didn’t need specially convened institutions of experts to inform the scientific community that a study could not be replicated. He just got up, told us about how he wasn’t able to replicate this study, and sat down.


It was heroic.


If you're struggling to understand why on earth I thought this was heroic, then this post is for you. You might have entered science in a different time. The results of replication studies are no longer communicated only face to face when running into a colleague in the corridor, or at a conference. But I was impressed in 2009. I had never seen anyone give a talk in which the only message was that an original effect didn’t stand up to scrutiny. People sometimes presented successful replications. They presented null effects in lines of research where the absence of an effect was predicted in some (but not all) tests. But I’d never seen a talk where the main conclusion was just: “This doesn’t seem to be a thing”.

On 12 September 2011 I sent Stephane Doyen an email. “Did you ever manage to publish some of that work? I wondered what has happened to it.” Honestly, I didn’t really expect that he would manage to publish these studies. After all, I couldn’t remember ever having seen a paper in the literature that was just a replication. So I asked, even though I did not expect he would have been able to publish his findings.

Surprisingly enough, he responded that the study would soon appear in press. I wasn’t fully aware of new developments in the publication landscape, where Open Access journals such as PlosOne published articles as long as the work was methodologically solid, and the conclusions followed from the data. I shared this news with colleagues, and many people couldn’t wait to read the paper: An article, in print, reporting the failed replication of a study many people knew to be not replicable. The excitement was not about learning something new. The excitement was about seeing replication studies with a null effect appear in print.

Regrettably, not everyone was equally excited. The publication also led to extremely harsh online comments from the original researcher about the expertise of the authors (e.g., suggesting that findings can fail to replicate due to “Incompetent or ill-informed researchers”), and the quality of PlosOne (“which quite obviously does not receive the usual high scientific journal standards of peer-review scrutiny”). This type of response happened again, and again, and again. Another failed replication led to a letter by the original authors that circulated over email among eminent researchers in the area, was addressed to the original authors, and ended with “do yourself, your junior co-authors, and the rest of the scientific community a favor. Retract your paper.”

Some of the historical record on discussions between researchers around between 2012-2015 survives online, in Twitter and Facebook discussions, and blogs. But recently, I started to realize that most early career researchers don’t read about the replication crisis through these original materials, but through summaries, which don’t give the same impression as having lived through these times. It was weird to see established researchers argue that people performing replications lacked expertise. That null results were never informative. That thanks to dozens of conceptual replications, the original theoretical point would still hold up even if direct replications failed. As time went by, it became even weirder to see that none of the researchers whose work was not corroborated in replication studies ever published a preregistered replication study to silence the critics. And why were there even two sides to this debate? Although most people agreed there was room for improvement and that replications should play some role in improving psychological science, there was no agreement on how this should work. I remember being surprised that a field was only now thinking about how to perform and interpret replication studies if we had been doing psychological research for more than a century.
 

I wanted to share this autobiographical memory, not just because I am getting old and nostalgic, but also because young researchers are most likely to learn about the replication crisis through summaries and high-level overviews. Summaries of history aren’t very good at communicating how confusing this time was when we lived through it. There was a lot of uncertainty, diversity in opinions, and lack of knowledge. And there were a lot of feelings involved. Most of those things don't make it into written histories. This can make historical developments look cleaner and simpler than they actually were.

It might be difficult to understand why people got so upset about replication studies. After all, we live in a time where it is possible to publish a null result (e.g., in journals that only evaluate methodological rigor, but not novelty, journals that explicitly invite replication studies, and in Registered Reports). Don't get me wrong: We still have a long way to go when it comes to funding, performing, and publishing replication studies, given their important role in establishing regularities, especially in fields that desire a reliable knowledge base. But perceptions about replication studies have changed in the last decade. Today, it is difficult to feel how unimaginable it used to be that researchers in psychology would share their results at a conference or in a scientific journal when they were not able to replicate the work by another researcher. I am sure it sometimes happened. But there was clearly a reason those professors I overheard in 2007 were suggesting to establish an independent committee to perform and publish studies of effects that were widely known to be not replicable.

As people started to talk about their experiences trying to replicate the work of others, the floodgates opened, and the shells fell off peoples' eyes. Let me tell you that, from my personal experience, we didn't call it a replication crisis for nothing. All of a sudden, many researchers who thought it was their own fault when they couldn't replicate a finding started to realize this problem was systemic. It didn't help that in those days it was difficult to communicate with people you didn't already know. Twitter (which is most likely the medium through which you learned about this blog post) launched in 2006, but up to 2010 hardly any academics used this platform. Back then, it wasn't easy to get information outside of the published literature. It's difficult to express how it feels when you realize 'it's not me - it's all of us'. Our environment influences which phenotypic traits express themselves. These experiences made me care about replication studies.

If you started in science when replications were at least somewhat more rewarded, it might be difficult to understand what people were making a fuss about in the past. It's difficult to go back in time, but you can listen to the stories by people who lived through those times. Some highly relevant stories were shared after the recent multi-lab failed replication of ego-depletion (see tweets by Tom Carpenter and Dan Quintana). You can ask any older researcher at your department for similar stories, but do remember that it will be a lot more difficult to hear the stories of the people who left academia because most of their PhD consisted of failures to build on existing work.

If you want to try to feel what living through those times must have been like, consider this thought experiment. You attend a conference organized by a scientific society where all society members get to vote on who will be a board member next year. Before the votes are cast, the president of the society informs you that one of the candidates has been disqualified. The reason is that it has come to the society’s attention that this candidate selectively reported results from their research lines: The candidate submitted only those studies for publication that confirmed their predictions, and did not share studies with null results, even though these null results were well designed studies that tested sensible predictions. Most people in the audience, including yourself, were already aware of the fact that this person selectively reported their results. You knew publication bias was problematic from the moment you started to work in science, and the field knew it was problematic for centuries. Yet here you are, in a room at a conference, where this status quo is not accepted. All of a sudden, it feels like it is possible to actually do something about a problem that has made you feel uneasy ever since you started to work in academia.

You might live through a time where publication bias is no longer silently accepted as an unavoidable aspect of how scientists work, and if this happens, the field will likely have a very similar discussion as it did when it started to publish failed replication studies. And ten years later, a new generation will have been raised under different scientific norms and practices, where extreme publication bias is a thing of the past. It will be difficult to explain to them why this topic was a big deal a decade ago. But since you’re getting old and nostalgic yourself, you think that it’s useful to remind them, and you just might try to explain it to them in a 2 minute TikTok video.


History merely repeats itself. It has all been done before. Nothing under the sun is truly new.
Ecclesiastes 1:9



Thanks to Farid Anvari, Ruben Arslan, Noah van Dongen, Patrick Forscher, Peder Isager, Andrea Kis, Max Maier, Anne Scheel, Leonid Tiokhin, and Duygu Uygun for discussing this blog post with me (and in general for providing such a stimulating social and academic environment in times of a pandemic).

1 comment:

  1. I feel privileged to be a scientist in a world where bias and lack of reproducibility are widely discussed.

    ReplyDelete